- FCB Forum
- Follow us on Twitter!An unexpected computer crash last week limited my internet access and subsequently, my ability to post new content on here. But rest assured, new computer is in-hand and we should be back on track with regular posts every couple days starting within the next day or two.
Thanks for your patience and your continued support, both are greatly appreciated.
As the playoffs approach, it is starting to become more apparent who will be in and who will be out. One potential investment strategy is to seek rookie cards of some of the better players on the playoff teams. The playoffs put guys on the national stage as most of the games are nationally televised, and lots of baseball fans tune in. If a player gets hot during the playoffs, his cards will take off exponentially faster than they would have during the regular season.
Take a look at the standings and pick a few teams that appear to have a good chance to be playing in October. Pick some guys who you think could be impact players in the playoffs and check out their cards. A lot of times you will find that rookie cards or established stars can be a bit pricey, but usually they are safe buys because they don’t fluctuate in value very often. The playoffs are a perfect opportunity for some positive fluctuation if the player performs well. And if not, he is still a star and his rookies will still be desirable to collectors, so their price likely will not fall.
One such attempt that I made at this type of investing was to buy an Edwin Jackson rookie auto last September. The Tigers had been in first place for a long time and looked as if they would be able to stroll into the playoffs. I thought Jackson was a better pitcher than he was recognized to be, which made this the perfect investment. Not to mention, the Leaf Limited cards are beautiful so it was a good-looking pickup. Unfortunately for me, the Tigers blew their lead and failed to reach the postseason. Needless to say, I never had the opportunity to sell the Jackson.
So maybe that’s not the best example since I didn’t end up flipping the card, but you get the idea. Last year ARod cards were red hot as he carried the Yankees through the first two rounds of the postseason. The year before, David Price cards saw all-time highs as he emerged as a pitching phenom closing out the ALCS game 7 in convincing fashion.
Remember that it doesn’t always have to be an amazing performance. All star caliber players just producing like they always do can cause upward action for card value simply because more people are watching this happen. For example, Ryan Zimmerman has been a great player all year. But when Stephen Strasburg debuted and the whole nation watched, Zimmerman cards started rising in value because he was indirectly put in the spotlight. The same thing holds true for the playoffs, and this is what you can capitalize on.
Every year players shine as heroes in the playoffs. This provides a perfect opportunity to make some great sales and turn some nice profits…you just have to be prepared by buying in advance.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
With the signing deadline coming and going last night, we now have a new crop of 2010 draftees to consider for prospect rankings. Here is my updated top 15. For this list, I ruled any player who has played in the majors ineligible. List is made based on performance, potential, and projection.
Sever’s Top 15:
1. Bryce Harper- How can this guy not be #1?17 years old with the highest ceiling of anyone in the history of baseball. All five of his tools could be above average, if not plus, if not plus-plus. With 40+ homer potential, one GM said around draft time that if he stays healthy, this kid is a lock for 500 homeruns. That’s one heck of a prediction to make, and speaks volumes of Harper’s talent. But before we enshrine him in the Hall of Fame, we’ll have to let him play a few games. So for now, the best we can do is to list him atop this list as the #1 prospect in baseball.
2. Jesus Montero- Has really come alive after a slow start. Still only 20 years old and starting to impress in Triple-A with 14 homers and an average moving closer and closer to .300. The power is legit and he will hit for average too.
3. Mike Trout- Highest riser in 2010. Dominated low A and is starting to get the hang of High A…as a kid who just turned 19 last week. .340+ average, 50+ Stolen Bases and even some early signs of power.
4. Mike Moustakas- More power this year but also a high average. Move to Triple-A has brought him back to earth, but remember that he’s still only 21 and holding his own. Also has a great arm for the field. Guy is a star in the making.
5. Julio Teheran- Dominant start to the season. He sports a mid-90s fastball and already is one of the best pitchers in the Minors, but also has a very high ceiling which increases his prospect stock even more.
6. Jameson Taillon- 99 mph fastball and a dirty breaker give Taillon front-of-the-rotation potential. Has the body to be a horse on the mound and has the stuff to be an All Star.
7. Desmond Jennings- Blazing speed and a solid bat keep Jennings near the top of most prospect rankings. While he is commonly referred to as a five-tool prospect, Jennings hasn’t showed much power to this point in his career. But even without power, he has the bat and the speed to be a tremendous sparkplug at the top of the Rays order.
8. Wil Myers- Another big riser in 2010, this guy came alive after a slow opening month, and has not slowed down since. Compiling a double figure homerun total was not necessarily something people expected out of Myers so early, and his hitting tool is looking off the charts right now as he currently sits over .370 after jumping to High A. Whether he will be able to stay behind the plate is the big question mark for Myers, but he has the size and arm to play a corner outfield spot if catching doesn’t work out, and the bat will carry him to the Majors regardless of position.
9. Eric Hosmer- After a slow 2009, Hosmer has come alive in 2010 and has shown why he was taken so highly in last year’s draft. With his average hovering around .400 for the first couple months of the season, he has impressed by also adding some power. Rounds out the Royals’ great tri-fecta of prospects as their third bat in the top 10 in all of baseball.
10. Manny Machado- Comparisons to Alex Rodriguez make it difficult to leave him out of the top 15. Many considered him the top talent in the draft other than Harper, and he has potential to be a superstar.
11. Martin Perez- Young and projectable, 2010 has been a bit of a struggle for Perez. But he is pitching in Double-A as a 19 year old, so the struggles are to be expected. Even through the struggles, he is still striking out over a batter per inning, which is impressive especially considering that he’s pitching against a lot of guys who are 3-5 years older than him.
12. Freddie Freeman- Putting up impressive numbers as the youngest player in International League. Good average and power, and only 20 years old. He may not be a huge star in the majors, but he’ll definitely be above average at the very least.
13. Michael Pineda- Great stuff and a very good year so far in 2010. Posts lots of strikeouts and limits walks. Still only 21, he has the size to handle a big workload and projects to pitch at or near the front of the rotation once he gets to Seattle.
14. Kyle Gibson- Another pitcher with good size at 6’6″, Gibson has risen all the way to Triple-A during his first full professional season, and has thus far succeeded at each of the three stops he’s made this year.
15. Aroldis Chapman- Guys with 103 mph fastballs don’t come around every year. He’s raw, but he still has huge potential.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
With the obvious top prospects being Stanton, Posey, Strasburg, Heyward, and Brown, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at ten other NL rookies from what’s shaping up to potentially be one of the best rookie classes of all-time. You can vote for your favorites and discuss this topic at this FreedomCardBoard.com thread.
The ten are: Jaime Garcia, Ike Davis, Chris Johnson, Tyler Colvin, Jhoulys Chacin, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Leake, Logan Morrison, Pedro Alvarez, and Starlin Castro.
Here are my thoughts on these ten rookies:
Garcia will be a solid pitcher, but will always be overshadowed by Wainwright and Carpenter. He plays for a perennial playoff contending team so it won’t be difficult for him to put up decent numbers every year.
Davis probably won’t hit much better
than .250-.260 most years, but he’ll probably crack 20+ homers each yeah which is something the Mets will surely be able to use. I still find it amazing how many falling-into-the-dugout catches he has made this year.
Johnson has seemingly come out of nowhere, but hitting .365 is no joke. Realistically, he probably is won’t hit much more than .300 most years, if that, but regardless will probably go unnoticed as long as the Astros aren’t good enough to get out of the bottom half of the Central.
Colvin leads all rookies with 18 homers. He has been a pleasant surprise during a rough year for the Cubs. I don’t see him being a consistent power threat, but wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be another 15-20 homer per year guy. He would be pretty impressive if he could get the average up a little bit to make himself a more complete hitter.
Chacin has been one of the better pitching prospects for a couple years now. His numbers don’t blow you away at this point, but he has flashed some brilliance at times this year. Should eventually be a solid 
#2 or #3 guy within the next couple years.
Bumgarner tore up the Minors and has been considered an elite prospect since 2008. Decreased velocity on the fastball had some people worried, and he lost some of his support. A low to mid-90s fastball alone isn’t going to be enough to make him a stud like we saw in the Minors, but his secondary pitches have come along and he should fit into the rotation nicely behind Lincecum and Cain.
Leake was basically the finesse version of Strasburg in college (compare their numbers, they aren’t too far apart) and had no Minor League experience but 
has put up good numbers for a contending team. He could easily have at least 5 more wins right now with better run support. If the Reds continue to contend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 20 games at some point in his career.
Morrison has been projected by scouts and BA to be an all-star in the near future. He has a current 8 game hitting streak after about 15 Major League games. He’ll probably be a .310+ average guy most years of his career and he’s supposed to be a 20-25 homer kind of guy. Still waiting on the power numbers to show up with more regularity, but even without them his bat and plate approach make him an On-Base machine.
Alvarez doesn’t seem like more than a .270 guy to me, but he’ll hit for a lot of power. Pittsburgh has been dying for some star power for a long time, maybe they have found it. He should hit 25-30 homers each year.
Castro will never be a power threat, 
but he’s going to be right in the middle of whatever the Cubs do for the next decade. After a long run of guys like Corey Patterson and Ronny Cedeno, we can only wonder whether Castro will be able to maintain this level of play moving forward rather than falling off the table like many “top” Cub prospects before him. Very young, a great glove, and a solid bat. Sounds like a player any team could use.
My top three picks are Leake, Castro, and Morrison. Alvarez was tough to go against with his power, but while I could see him as a .275 hitter, I could see him as a .250 hitter which would basically make him Adam Dunn with 10-15 fewer homers per year. And i chose Leake over Bumgarner because I think Bumgarner was overhyped in the Minors and is really more of a solid #2 or a good #3 pitcher than a true ace.
As far as investing goes, card prices generally peak when a player debuts if he has a strong debut week. From that point, performance usually dictates where his cards will go. Once the initial peak happens, most players’ cards fall back to earth, providing investors with a chance to pick up cards of players they believe will be all-star caliber players in the future. Again, performance will be the main factor in determining price from this point forward, so in order for a player’s card prices to see increases, he will almost certainly have to perform at a high level. If you feel a player is a good value buy (i.e., you think he either is or will be better than his card prices would indicate), it might be a good time to pick up a few of his cards. Remember, the player’s first year cards or Minor League auto cards (i.e., Bowman Chrome, Donruss Elite, etc.) will still be the most desirable and will see the biggest increases if he sees upward action, even after he debuts.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
As we have discussed, the ultimate goal of prospecting is to buy low and sell high. Assuming this to be our number one goal, it is logical to also assume that buying at the lowest possible prices will be beneficial for our cause. So it may come as a surprise that it can actually be appropriate to pay more than the current market price for a card.
Why? How can this be?
Sometimes when you’re building a stash, you may struggle to find the cards you want. When there aren’t enough cards listed on eBay to satisfy your needs, what do you do? There simply aren’t that many online card retailers outside of eBay, so sometimes you have to bite the bullet and buy what you can from eBay.
Assuming a normal amount of cards are listed on eBay (by normal, I mean a regular cycle of more cards being added each week. 
Enough to meet the demand), you can find the market price for these cards. For example, let’s say I wanted to buy some blue refractors of Jake Odorizzi. If one or two blue refractors are listed each week, we can follow their sales and average them to find the market price. But if only one blue refractor gets listed over a two month period, what happens? A small supply and a high demand leads to higher prices. But they may not be justified at the time for the prospect. If the player isn’t performing at a very high level on the field, should you pay a premium for his cards, simply because there aren’t enough being listed on eBay?
My answer to this question is yes, absolutely, but only under one of two conditions.
1) The player is outperforming his prices. By this I mean the player is extremely hot on the field and has been over a long period of time, but his card prices have not yet caught up with his on-field production.
2) You are extremely confident in a prospect and that his card prices will see increases that exceed the inflated prices you are paying at some point. This would be more for the advanced prospectors than the beginners, as an advanced prospector is able to get a good feel for whether or not a guy has legitimate potential to see future value increases, thanks to their personal experience. This is much tougher for a beginner to do simply because they do not have as much experience with this yet.
You might notice that both of the above conditions end in the same place: with an eventual card value increase for your prospect. This is the important part, because if you’re not absolutely certain that their cards will see some upward action at some point, then it’s stupid to overpay.
But if you are certain (or as close to it as you possibly can be in the world of uncertainty that prospecting is), then it is in your best interest to snag the cards while you can. In these situations, the potential for future gain outweighs the risk of overpaying by a few dollars and possibly losing even more than you would by paying market price. And because the potential for gain outweighs the risk of overpaying, it is worth picking up what you can, for the prices you can get…just so you can stockpile a few cards. If you pick a prospect but have no cards of him, it doesn’t matter how high they go because you’re not going to make money off of cards you don’t own.
This is a strategy I’ve implemented on two of my bigger stashes of the last year: Wil Myers and Matthew Moore. Yes, I know I’ve mentioned these two guys a lot lately and I don’t mean to bore you by talking about the same players all the time. However, it is easiest for me to draw examples from personal experiences, and my experiences with investing into each of them have been enlightening in many ways.
Anyway, the strategy ended up working out for both. Here’s why I did it for each player:
Myers: This guy was a real sleeper if you bought in early. He went on a tear starting in mid-May, and now two full months later, he hasn’t slowed down one bit. Neither have his card values. When 2010 Bowman came out, I was able to piece together a decent stash of his chrome autos, but I wasn’t satisfied because I felt that he was undervalued and that if he continued to hit, his card prices would start to reflect his on-field performance. So I started bidding a few bucks over the market rate on his cards, happy to pay extra if it went that high because I thought he was so undervalued that I was still getting a good price despite overpaying based on current market price. I also started making some offers of over market value to pry the cards away from some sellers who were considering holding what they had at the current prices. I ended up with 25+ autos total before his prices took off, and now they’ve about doubled from where I was buying in. For Myers, it was about getting as many cards as I could before the prices caught up to the performance.
Moore: I was able to buy a few blue refractors for about $15 apiece when I first started stashing Moore. But after that, I found that the market was pretty dry. Slowly but surely, some cards were listed on eBay…a few refractors and a few Xfractors, mostly one at a time. He was looking pretty impressive late last year when I was buying, and the main reason behind picking him to invest into was that he seemed to be worth more than his cards were getting (i.e., outperforming his prices, once again). So when an Xfractor popped up, I was bidding 10-13 dollars despite the fact that they only should have been selling for about $5-$8 in a normal market, based on the price of blues. I also normally wouldn’t choose to buy a ton of Xfractors simply because I prefer other parallels for one reason or another, but it was my only option at the time, so I went after what I could. But again, I decided it was more important to make sure I had some cards of him than to hold out and wait for lower prices. And sure enough, his stuff is really starting to take off this year and catch up with his performance. A guy who leads the Minors in strikeouts two years in a row is going to get some attention…it’s just a matter of time. Well, that time seems to finally be starting.
Warning:
–While I personally feel that overpaying has its benefits in the right situations, grossly overpaying (for example, paying $40 for a card that sells for $20), is stupid. Don’t do it. Sometimes people get into bidding wars when not many cards are listed which drives the price to insane levels that wouldn’t even be matched if the player hit two homers in his Major League Debut. In these cases, let the card go and wait for the next one. For example, one of the Moore Xfractors I was bidding on ended up going for over $20. On a card that should be selling for $8 or so, I was happy to pay $10-$13, but paying $20 was something that did not interest me because that wouldn’t have left me with enough room to easily make a profitable flip even after his cards started getting some attention.
To conclude, there are certain times when it may be beneficial for you to pay a little extra to make sure you obtain some stock in a certain player. It’s not always recommended because you have to remember that the ultimate goal is to sell for a profit later, and you must leave yourself enough room between your buy point and the card’s ceiling or else you are setting yourself up for failure. But if you use this strategy properly, it can help make you more money in the future.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
I’ve received a few more questions over the last couple weeks that I’d like to try to answer.
The first offers us a change of pace from all the talk of Chrome. The question was about Elite Autographs and how the parallels vary in price. Thanks to Paul for bringing up this topic. 
It’s hard to say exactly since all players are different, but it seems that for a guy whose Base Elite Autos sell for $10-$15, the /100 parallels are anywhere from $25-$40, the /50s are $40-$75, and the gold status autos #/5 (one of my favorite cards from an aesthetic perspective) go anywhere from $100-$300. As you can see, the range often varies more with the rarer parallels. That’s likely because these don’t pop up too often, and every time they do, the player’s stock is often different.
For example, let’s say a hitter is batting .260 to start the season and a gold status sells for $125. Two months pass with no other sales, until another finally pops up. The guy is now hitting .265, and hasn’t received much more hype, but the same card sells for $200. Then the player gets hot and boosts his average all the way to .310. Another one pops up on eBay and sells for $300. Simply because the cards are rare and don’t appear very often, buyers either 1) don’t know the market and overpay or 2) are willing to pay extra to make sure they win the listing and are able to get the card since they don’t pop up very often.
Just like Chrome, these can be very good investments as well, especially if the player has no Chrome Auto or if the Elite auto precedes the Chrome Auto by a year or two. David Price and Jason Heyward are two solid examples of this, as they both have Elite Autos from 2007 that are still very successful on the secondary market despite a Chrome Auto from 2008.
My personal best Elite flip was of a Jacob Turner Gold Status Auto #/5 earlier this year. In spring training, Turner pitched a strong inning, striking out the side in his first appearance in a Tiger uniform. Obviously he was nowhere near ready to make the team yet, but that didn’t stop his cards from making a nice week-long spike. I sold one of my two #/5 Elite Autos for $300 after buying it for $160 only a month or two earlier.
Another question from this week was what I would buy if a player had Sterling and Elite First Year autos and Chrome 2nd Year autos. This situation makes it difficult on prospectors because Chrome has proved to be the premium brand in the world of rookies, but First Year cards also have a big draw. I personally prefer the Chrome Auto simply because you know what to expect. It’s licensed by MLB and features the player in their future MLB jersey with a logo. Autographs are on-card, and parallels are sharp and good-looking. I find that Chrome price patterns are generally pretty consistent–they usually see increases and decreases when you expect them to. And sometimes, the Chromes actually dwarf the earlier cards.
For example, Wil Myers Elites were selling for $15 per before Chrome released. When Chrome came out, base autos were around $10, but Elites also dropped to about $10. WHen Myers started heating up on the field, his Chromes moved to $15 and then $20 and now $30, while his Elites have only climbed back up to the $15 range and are only recently pulling in about $20 apiece.
With that said, the bottom line in this argument is and will always be that when a player gets hot, ALL of his cards will start to move up in value. Some may move more than others, but picking the right player is always more important than picking the right card.
Lastly, I have been asked about my numbers on my Matt Moore investment, so here’s the rundown:
I’m currently sitting at $360.66 invested into Moore and hope to turn that into at least $600 after all fees. The sell points vary from card to card, depending on where I bought in and where I feel the card could realistically go in the future. The only card I may have overpaid for was the Sterling Gold Refractor at about $37, but I’m confident that as his card values start to catch up with his on-field performance, I’ll be able to get at least $50-$60 out of it. For some approximate sell points, I’d like to move Blue Refs for about $40 apiece, Xfractors for $20-$25, Refractors for $10.
One of the biggest things for Moore investors is that he only has the two cards, with Bowman Chrome being the bigger of the two, so they should command some pretty high prices as he continues to dominate on the mound and starts to get more attention in the card world.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
One guy that has really started to turn some heads lately is Matt Moore. It may have been more appropriate to add him as an “On The Rise” article since his cards sales have been just that lately, but since I have a fairly large stash of Moore myself, he enters this site as Prospecting Stashes Part 3.
About Moore: 
As a 6’2″ 200 pound lefty, this guy can flat out pitch. His pitching arsenal includes the following:
-Fastball with some sinking movement in the 91-94 range
-Curveball in the high 70s range which may already be a plus-plus pitch…one of the best in the Minors
-Changeup in the low 80s with good fade
You can find a pretty good scouting report on Moore here at Project Prospect
Moore is the reigning MiLB Strikeout king, coming off a 2009 season during which he K’d 176 batters. After a slow start to the 2010 season, Moore is back on track to lead the Minors in strikeouts again, as he currently sits in first place with 170 on the season…good for an alarmingly high 12.6 Strikeouts per 9 Innings. Moore is currently on pace for approximately 210 Ks this season. He probably has five more starts this season, and if he can get to 200 Ks, he would become the first player to reach that mark since Fransisco Liriano did it in 2005.
Looking at his basic numbers is extremely deceiving right now. He sports a 4-10 record and a 3.87 ERA. While the ERA is pretty respectable, the record is not…although neither show exactly how good he has been over the past couple months. He got off to a slow start but since has been absolutely dominant, striking out 10 or more batters in six of his previous ten starts for a total of 92 Ks over 60.1 IP to go along with a 1.62 ERA and a .163 Batting Average for opponents.
To this point, his only real weak spot has been inconsistent command. If he can limit the number of free passes, it’s hard to imagine any pitching prospect having a better shot to succeed than Moore. Lately he has been able to cut back on the walks, and we can see how good of a pitcher he is when he does so. A pitcher that can induce so many swing-and-misses is going to be an impact player at any level.
There had been some talk that he may be converted to be a closer, although his recent dominance seems to have silenced those rumors, and for good reason. As a lefty with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve and an average to above average changeup, Moore projects to be a #1 or #2 starter in the Majors.
My Current Stash:2 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor BGS 9.5s, 5 Bowman Chrome Blue Refractors, 2 Bowman Chrome Xfractors, 1 Bowman Chrome Xfractor BGS 9.5, 3 Bowman Chrome refractors, 2 2 Bowman Chrome Refractor BGS 9.5s, 30 Bowman Chrome Base, 1 Bowman Sterling Gold Refractor, 1 Bowman Sterling Refractor
Estimated Time Before Selling: < 6 Months
Plan For Selling Stash: I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Moore become an off-season hype train where expectations (which are often followed closely by card values) build and build regardless of the fact that he won’t throw a live game pitch for 5 months. I think this is especially possible if he reaches 200 Ks before the end of the season, which seems to be a very attainable goal. Prices are already starting to climb, although with his only cards being 2009 Bowman (with Chrome) and 2009 Bowman Sterling, there’s a limited supply of his cards out there. As result of this, it wouldn’t be surprising if his cards were to see some pretty big gains over a short period of time. I will look to move a few of my cards sometime in the next month or two if prices continue to creep upward, and will not hesitate to move the rest of my stash if his card values were to double from where they are now.
The Rays’ farm system continues to produce promising young pitchers. Moore appears to be next in line. Their rotation is going to be special in 3-5 years, and don’t be surprised if we eventually see a big lefty-lefty tandem at the front of it in David Price and Matt Moore.
Check out Moore’s MiLB Player page here: Link
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
While many aspects contribute to a hitter’s overall card prices, perhaps the easiest way for them to rocket toward the sky is for the player to mash a bunch of homeruns.
Think about it: people love homeruns. It’s a term used not only by baseball fans, but by Americans. I’m sure you’ve heard terms like “They really hit a homerun with that idea” or “Your presentation was a homerun”. The word is ingrained into our society’s vocabulary as an ultra-positive compliment. It’s no wonder people love to see baseball players crank homers.
What’s the most impressive single-play feat in baseball? Robbing a homerun? An unassisted triple play? Maybe those are the two best, but both are defensive plays. Offensively, the answer is a homerun. To make solid contact and power a ball 385 feet with a wood bat is impressive. Even more impressive are some of the long homers we have seen over the years. And with a single swing of the bat, a player can change the outcome of a game, or even sway an entire season. Simply put, hitting a homerun is both exciting and impressive.
A homerun is a glamorous achievement. So it’s no surprise that most of the top homerun hitters in baseball are also some of its biggest and brightest stars, and always have been. Historically, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle to name a few. I won’t comment on steroids, but Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire were incredibly popular players during the homerun chase seasons. And today, guys like Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and Alex Rodriguez are some of the game’s biggest names.
Hitting enough homeruns can bridge the gap between a player and history. Without the homerun, Jim Thome would not have been nearly the player he has been. A career .277 average and a lot of doubles and RBI make him a good player, but 577 homeruns make him a future Hall of Famer.
The same goes in the prospecting world. Everyone is always trying to predict who will be the next big player, and one way to do this is to look at homerun totals. For all players who are legitimate prospects (i.e., not 32 years old and a career minor leaguer), there seems to be a direct correlation between homeruns and card price. Mike Stanton hit 21 homers this season in the Minors before getting called up. His card prices exploded, most notably after a three homerun game. Stanton also hit one of the longest homeruns in Minor League baseball history, a titanic 500+ foot shot over the scoreboard in Jacksonville. These accomplishments in addition to his impressive overall season numbers pushed his Chrome autos over $100 before he reached the Majors.
That said, there are also other contributing factors such as 
batting average and strikeouts. Greg Halman for example, has hit 25 homeruns this year, but he is striking out at an alarming rate of almost 40% of his at bats. The result? His card prices are not shooting through the roof because striking out at such a high rate in Triple-A makes people assume the player will continue this pace in the Majors.
So why does this all matter? Because if you can find a player to buy into who has power potential, but hasn’t turned enough heads to command huge prices yet, you might have found a great investment. Imagine if you were buying Stanton chrome autos for $30. Even if you bought ten of them, you could have made $700 of profit by selling when they hit $100+ apiece. Remember that potential is never a sure thing. In fact, it is far from a sure thing. But if you buy into a player before he hits 40 homeruns in a season, you will probably be on your way to big money. Use the majesty of the homerun to your advantage.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
One challenge that truly separates the great prospectors from the novices is knowing when to sell. We touched on this during Prospecting Theory 5: Have a Plan for your Investment, but I wanted to get into a little more detail about how you can help yourself know when is the right time to move your cards. Because you’re keeping an accurate and detailed spreadsheet on your investments (you are right? If not, you should be), you know exactly how much you paid for each card you own and therefore, you know how much you need to sell it for in order to make a profit. Here is a list of things I personally do and things I consider when trying to determine when to sell.
1. Search eBay for the card(s) you own and check completed listings regularly (a link to completed listings can be found on the left side of any eBay search page). This will give you an idea of the price range around which your own card might sell. Remember that this is just a guideline. Timing of selling makes all the difference so while completed listings may show one price for the card, you might get a completely different price a week later if you try to sell yours.
2. Always, always, always remember fees. Most of my card business is done on eBay. EBay has fees, some of which are pretty large. When you’re thinking about selling that Buster Posey Refractor Auto and see that the last few have gone for around $110, don’t forget that eBay is going to take a nice fat chunk of that from you with fees. In auction, a $110 sale turns into $96.61 after eBay and PayPal fees. I use this New Life Auctions eBay and PayPal Fee Calculator whenever I need a quick fee check.
3. Remember what we talked about regarding having a plan for your investment and what a worthwhile profit might be. Both are important for determining when to sell.
4. Not every prospect will see price increases. It’s unfortunate, but that’s just the way it is. There have been a couple times when I have given up on an investment at the right time and moved what I had of a player before his stuff tanked all the way into the ground. Surprisingly, I actually am more proud of myself for doing that than I am for picking a player who made me a profit. It’s important not to be stubborn to the point of blindness. If a player is striking out 40% of the time, he will have a hard time succeeding at higher levels against better pitching. Might be time to consider moving some stuff. The player I moved was Wes Hodges. I like what he brought to the table with a solid bat and an intense will to win. But time after time I read reports that he wasn’t going anywhere without improving his glove, his bat wasn’t as good as that of other prospects in the organization, etc. And when his production was down one year, I eventually decided to move my Hodges cards, even though I was taking about a 15% loss on what I paid for them. Back when there were still lots of people looking for his cards, I was able to trade my Gold Refractor auto, two Refractor autos, and two base autos (all Bowman Chrome) for Buster Posey, Wilmer Flores, and Gordon Beckham Bowman Chrome Refractor autos (1 of each player). I moved all three cards for good money, and since then the Hodges cards have 
absolutely tanked. It was fun to be right about that one. I still hope the best for Hodges and hope that he gets a chance to play in the big leagues somewhere.
The point of this is that knowing when you are defeated and simply getting out while your cards still have some value (even if it’s for a loss) is sometimes your best option. I’m not saying to jump ship and lose faith in a guy if he goes through a 2 for 25 slump, but if you feel that he isn’t performing well and doesn’t really have the potential to get much better, it may be time to start to consider selling.
5. There is one blatantly obvious time to sell: when a player debuts in the Majors. But for a lot of players, there are also plenty of opportunities along the way to flip for profit. Not all players reach the Majors, but even some of these guys can still be profitable if bought and sold at the proper times. In the Minors, guys who perform well will often be hyped up by Minor League baseball publications and experts like the guys of Baseball America. It’s one thing when a player performs well. It’s another thing when a prospect expert (like the guys of Baseball America) makes a public statement, whether in an article, an online question and answer, or even on Twitter, about how great a prospect is. Such things can bring more attention to the prospect which ultimately can result in higher prices. Check out Baseball America’s weekly Hot Sheets for information about some of the hottest prospects in the game each week.
6. Check stats of the player at least once a week. For my bigger investments, I check every single night. Sound like a lot of commitment? Well you have to be committed to be the best at anything so you might as well be committed to this to try to be the best that you can be. It’s actually pretty fun to check up on how your guys played each night. I use MiLB.com to check stats.
Considering these things can help give you an idea of where the market for a certain player might be headed. The whole idea of prospecting is to buy low and sell high, which in a nutshell means you’re trying to predict the market. When you stay up to date on your investment player’s stats and take advantage of outside publications hyping him up, you have a better chance to successfully predict the market. The most important thing is that you are happy with your sale. If you think you’re selling at the best time, then do it, take your money, and don’t look back.
Bonus Material: It’s been a busy week with the trade deadline, but amidst the trades have been some big debuts of some of the top prospects in the game. Here’s my take on a few of them, and my thoughts on how to handle an investment of any of them.
Top Prospect Debuts: Logan Morrison and Domonic Brown both made their highly anticipated Major League debuts this week. Brown cards are seeing some nice upward movement, now is the time to sell him. Morrison hasn’t moved a whole lot despite a decent first few games. I’m holding his cards for the time being until they start seeing some action, but it appears that he will have to produce on the field to generate that action. I wouldn’t be worried if I were you, he’s got the tools to be a star. Jeremy Hellickson is set to make his Major League debut Monday night with the Rays. If he pitches well, it will probably be time to sell. If you have cards, I’d think about listing a few now.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
One guy that has been making noise in the prospect world for years is Logan Morrison. And with Chris Coghlan headed to the DL, Morrison is finally going to get his chance in the Majors.
About Morrison: He had a monster 2008 season and was named league MVP, while showing he can hit for average and power. Final statline included .332 average, 13 homers, and 38 doubles.
In 2009, he moved up a league and got off to a blazing start in the first few games before he was sidelined for a couple months with a small fracture in his wrist. By the end of the year, he had put up solid numbers, but perhaps the most impressive of those was his BB/K ratio of 63/46. This shows one of his most commendable attributes: a great approach and discipline at the plate.
Once he settles in the Majors, he has all the tools to to be a special 3-hitter with his bat, plate approach, and ability to hit for power when he wants to. He is a line drive hitter with good size (6’3″, 235 lbs) and power. He has a level swing from the left side which is more geared toward hitting line drives than long, lofty fly balls, so despite excellent physical strength and raw power, he’s not going to lead the league in homers. But he’ll certainly hit his share of them, probably anywhere from 15-30 in any given season, while also hitting for high average and being an OBP machine with the walks he will draw.
I think of him as a Mark Grace but with better power. A player with that kind of skill set has a shot to be a perennial all star.
His overall 2010 numbers so far (mostly in Triple-A) are .313 average, 6 homeruns, 47 RBI, 19 Doubles, 6 Triples, 48 BB, 38 K, .424 On Base %, .502 SLG%, .925 OPS
My Current Stash: 
Thirteen 2009 Bowman Chrome Refractor Autos #/500, Two 2009 Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto BGS 9.5 with 10 auto, One 2009 Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor Auto #/150, One 2008 Donruss Elite Auto #/50
Estimated Time Before Selling: 1-7 days
Plan For Selling Stash: Morrison’s cards should see some price increases if he does much of anything in the first day or two with the Marlins. A lot of times, the commentators will talk up debuting rookies, especially if they are supposed to be special players like Morrison is supposed to be. This generally brings a mad rush to eBay to pick up his cards and prices should go up accordingly. It’s surprising how low Morrison prices have stayed over the last year or so. He has been a top 20 prospect (now would be considered by most to be a top 5 or 10) but his lack of wow power, despite one of the best all-around offensive packages in the minors, has left some prospectors questioning his cards’ profit potential. But during a season when the prices of Austin Jackson (who has minimal power at this point in his career) and Buster Posey (who has average power, not as good as Morrison’s) have climbed higher and higher, there’s no reason to assume that Morrison cards won’t follow a similar trend. And with such a small buy-in for the caliber of prospect Morrison is, his cards have some huge growth potential. I picked up my refractor autos for between $20 and $30, and wouldn’t be surprised to see these double in value by the end of the season. Assuming his prices see some solid increases over the next few days, I plan to move 7-10 Refractors and at least 2 of the 4 other autos I have (Blue Ref, Elite /50, 2 BGS 9.5/10 Ref Autos) during initial hype. I plan to hold a few for future consideration, because I believe Morrison actually has what it takes to be an All Star.
With the Major League arrival of Mike Stanton and now Morrison, the future of the Marlins seems to be upon us.
Check out Morrisons MiLB Player page here: Link
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com