I’ve been working on this list for a number of weeks now, but now that the season has reached its halfway point, it’s time to publish it. As always, I’m more than willing to explain any rankings and answer any questions.
Please Note: ProspectForProfit.com’s personnel does not include any professional scouts, nor are any scouts affiliated with PFP. This list ranks prospects based on statistics, scouting reports, projection, and various other factors.
Both performance and projection factor into the following rankings. Sever’s Top 50:
1. Bryce Harper , OF, Nationals – While I believe he has been #1 since the moment he signed with Washington, now that Trout has graduated to the Majors, Harper will be the undisputed #1 on most lists as soon as Trout loses eligibility. Monster power and proving he can hit for average too. Has the desire and passion to be a star, although this may be his biggest drawback as well, as his trash talking and cockiness have been highlighted multiple times already this season. This kind of attitude will ultimately put him on a similar level as Alex Rodriguez or Barry Bonds as far as public perception, where his own fans love him but everywhere else hates him. Still very young, one would hope he grows out of this immaturity with time. Nothing holds him back physically; this kid is destined for greatness.
Why he was ranked here: He has performed at a high level and has the highest ceiling of anyone in the Minors with a realistic chance that he reaches it.
2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels – The complete package. Trout is one of the fastest players in baseball, and also has the ability to hit for good average and will probably hit 15-20 homers per season, possibly more, all while playing great defense out in the outfield. His game has very few weaknesses, and it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a household name in baseball.
Why he was ranked here: No weaknesses to his game, a complete and true 5-tool player who will be a star.
3. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays– The talk of the Future’s Game as he pumped upper-90s fastballs and flashed his plus-plus breaking ball, Moore has continued to dominate the Minors in 2011. As a lefty with outstanding stuff and make-up, Moore appears to be a legitimate front-of-the-rotation pitcher who will be a threat to contend for the strikeout crown every season.
Why he was ranked here: He has taken the step forward to become the #1 pitching prospect in the Minors. He has earned this ranking.
4. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals – Kind of reminds me of Moore with the way he has dominated Minor League hitters so far in his career, although Miller is right-handed. His strikeout numbers are some of the best in the league each year, and he also has the potential to be a #1 or #2 starter in the Majors.
Why he was ranked here: He has impressed me every time I read anything about him or check his numbers. The ability to strike batters out is what separates good pitchers from great pitchers, and Miller has the stuff to get a K at any time.
5. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees – Montero hasn’t had a jaw-dropping season to this point, but he has been rock solid. Throw in the fact that he’s still one of the youngest players in Triple-A and it looks like a pretty successful first half. He is still getting reps as a catcher, but it seems unrealistic to think he will be good enough to stay there long term. He is blocked in the Yankees organization, so a trade would not be a surprise. He has the ability to be a .310/20/100 hitter in the future.
Why he was ranked here: While he hasn’t dominated like a top 5 prospect probably should, I couldn’t justify ranking someone else in the top 5 instead of Montero. His solid-but-not-great season left the door open for someone else to come in and take his spot, but for one reason or another, no one did this, either due to injury, lackluster performance, or other reasons.
6. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates – While the Pirates have severely limited his workload this season, Taillon has pitched extremely well. He hasn’t been completely dominant, but he has struck out nearly a batter per inning and his season walk total hasn’t even reached double digits yet. He has the stuff, build, and make-up to be a stud of an ace in the future, it’s just about getting the reps he needs to realize his potential and move forward. The Pirates are holding him back with the way they are handling him, and I think once they give him more breathing room, he will start to get more comfortable, strikeout more batters, and become the ace everyone thought he would be when Pittsburgh drafted him.
Why he was ranked here: I hate to say it since he’s a guy I bought into, but I don’t like the way the Pirates are handling him at all. It’s one thing to limit a pitcher, but it’s another thing entirely to baby him to the point where he barely even gets into the game before he has reached his pitch count. If it weren’t for the way they handle him or for the last start he made where he gave up a few runs, he likely would have cracked the top 5, maybe even at #4. For now he sits at #6 based on a great first half of the season and a whole lot of potential.
7. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles – Machado was a guy I thought was overhyped at the beginning of the season. It was clear he had some serious tools, but I thought people were jumping the gun to rank him so highly out of the gate before we had really even seen him in pro ball. I wanted to see how his tools translated before ranking him so highly. Well, here he is, now at #7. He started off 2011 by proving that he can rake, hitting for both power and average before missing time to injury. While the A-Rod comparisons are still a bit ridiculous, other than the fact that he is a shortstop from Miami with a similar build, Machado is looking like he’s the real deal. He’s still a couple years away, but if he continues at this pace, he will be a star in the Majors.
Why he was ranked here: He jumped about 20 spots from my preseason ranking for him because of his bat. If it weren’t for injury, he too may have cracked the top 5.
8. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves – Teheran got his first shot at the Majors this year, although he was pretty underwhelming considering all the hype surrounding him as a prospect. He’s now back in Triple-A, and he is dominating as a 20-year-old. Some people still question whether he will be durable enough to be a starter or if he is destined for the bullpen, but for now he is tearing through Triple-A hitters as one of the best starters in the Minors, as one of the youngest players in the league.
Why he was ranked here: One of the top starters in the Minors this year, Teheran has earned a top 10 ranking. That said, now that some other top pitching prospects have shown us what they can do and proven themselves at higher levels this season (Moore and Miller in Double-A, Taillon in professional baseball), I put them above Teheran. This is because I think these three have higher ceilings than Teheran, and the combination of those ceilings plus performing at a higher level is why they leapfrogged Julio since my pre-season top 50.
9. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers – Turner doesn’t really have much spark to his game, all he does is get batters out with consistency. Turner had maintained a sub-3.00 ERA all season until a rough start or two recently, but his numbers are solid across the board. He doesn’t give up many hits or walks, he has proven he has the durability to go late into games, with the movement on his pitches he is able to induce lots of groundballs, and he has the ability to strike some batters out too. Throw in the fact that he just turned 20 and is pitching in Double-A and you’ve got a very intriguing prospect.
Why he was ranked here: At this point, his numbers don’t really scream future ace (although he still has plenty of time to get there), but his floor is so high that it’s highly unlikely he won’t make it at least as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. He’s certainly among the top pitching prospects in the Minors, and based on his age, performance, ceiling and floor, it seems that Turner is a sure bet to be a good Major League pitcher with All Star potential in the future.
10. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays – Lawrie is just coming back from injury, but his numbers from before the injury speak for themselves. My biggest qualm with him before the season was that he didn’t hit for much power, which supposedly was one of his better tools. 15 homers in the first 52 games silenced that complaint, and it looks like Lawrie is ready to take a shot at the Majors as soon as he is back to 100%.
Why he was ranked here: Lawrie absolutely would have been a top 5 guy for me had he not missed time due to injury; but his first half was too loud for me to leave him out of the top 10. Once he gets back into the swing of things, it shouldn’t be long until he gets the call to the Jays.
11. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees – He’s not very big but he’s young and talented. Should be capable of becoming a good #2 or #3 pitcher in the future, as long as he doesn’t run into durability problems.
12. Wil Myers, OF, Royals – I hate to drop one of my guys in ranking, but Myers hasn’t been overly impressive so far in Double-A. His K rate is up and he missed some time to a minor injury. It seems like he’s struggling to find a groove this year. That said, he’s still one of the better pure bats in the Minors and has plenty of time to iron out the wrinkles of his game to meet his potential as a big-time threat with the bat.
13. Tyler Skaggs, RHP, Diamondbacks – Some people may disagree with ranking Skaggs as high as I have him, but he has proven that he is more than just a solid regular in the rotation this year. His K/IP is outstanding and so is his groundball rate. We’ll see what he’s really made of soon, when he makes his Double-A debut with Mobile.
14. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals – This guy brings a lot to the table. He’s a strikeout pitcher who is a threat to rack up double-digit Ks with every start, and he does a nice job limiting base runners with a very good WHIP. He was shipped to KC as a part of the Greinke deal, but ultimately I think this guy will be the one the Brewers wish they had back.
15. Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds – He’s having another very nice season and has really helped his stock. Catchers with the ability to hit for decent average with some pop are few and far between, so Mesoraco will certainly add value to the Reds’ lineup when his time comes.
16. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Indians – Having a very strong season all around. It’s time to see if he has what it takes to continue to dominate in Double-A.
17. Jurickson Profar – Only 18 years old and already showing a special bat in class low A. He also has an impressive BB:K ratio. Very projectable, he should be a fun one to follow.
18. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals – A live arm that can reach the upper 90s, Martinez appears to be capable of greatness. Between Martinez and Shelby Miller, the Cardinals’ future rotation is starting to look pretty.
19. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers – Finally starting to put it together this year. He looks solid in Double-A but will he be able to continue his success at the next level?
20. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies – Catchers who can hit are a hot commodity and Rosario is just that.
21. Robbie Erlin, LHP, Rangers – Erlin seemingly came out of nowhere this year and has become one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball. He’s young and already more than holding his own in Double-A.
22. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians – Kipnis has been raking all season long and his numbers show it. A second baseman who can hit for extra bases and steal some bases is going to be a valuable piece of a Major League lineup.
23. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks – Coming off Tommy John Surgery, Parker got off to a slow start in 2011. Recently, he seems to have found a rhythm and is getting back on track. He still has great stuff, it’s just about finding his command again.
24. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays – Seems like he has been around these lists forever, but it’s only a matter of time before he is a permanent fixture atop the Rays’ lineup with his blazing speed.
25. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs – His strikeout rate is high enough that it should scare some people away, but everything else about Jackson’s game is very likeable. His bat and speed give him star potential. How successful he becomes will depend on his ability to put the bat on the ball more regularly.
26. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks – Some people think his power won’t translate to the Majors. I think he is a beast who will continue to succeed. His walk rate is almost even with his strikeout rate, which shows he has the patience to avoid swinging at junk pitches, which is what a lot of power hitters struggle with. Until he proves he can’t handle it, I’m going with the numbers, because they’re some of the most impressive in the Minors this season.
27. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves – Starting to really turn some heads, Vizcaino is having a good year as a 20-year-old in Double-A, giving Atlanta two top-tier right handed pitching prospects.
28. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays – Good offensive potential and has the ability to swipe some bases. As a shortstop, those offensive skills will make him valuable.
29. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins – Doesn’t look like the ace the Twins were hoping for, but should be a good 2, 3, or 4 starter.
30. Travis d’Arnaud, C, Blue Jays – This guy is flat out crushing Double-A pitching so far this year, and once again, catchers who can hit are going to be valuable assets to any team.
31. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets – Dominated High A ball with impressive numbers. Good size and stuff, has the potential to be a very good #2 or #3.
32. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees – Big size and good stuff, Betances is having a strong season. If he could cut down on the walks, he would so himself a huge favor as that’s his one notable weakness.
33. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants – He still needs to get his walks under better control, but he has stepped up his game this season, putting up respectable numbers even in the hitter-friendly Cal League.
34. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals – Not having a great season due to some control problems, but Montgomery just turned 22 and is already in Triple A. He should compete for a spot in the rotation next year during spring training.
35. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers – Not a big guy but should eventually hit for average and steal some bases, while playing solid D at short.
36. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies – Destroying pitching in the Cal League so far this season, and he is among league leaders in RBI.
37. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Phillies – Has the stuff to be great, but can he command it? And can he stay healthy? Strikeout numbers seem way too low for a guy with stuff as good as Cosart’s, which is a concern. Big potential but big questions marks.
38. JD Martinez, OF, Astros – You might ask how this guy ended up in a top 50, and at #39 no less. Check out his numbers and you’ll understand. As a 23-year-old in Double-A, Martinez is batting .333 with 39 BB with just 46 K. He has an unorthodox swing, but the results speak for themselves.
39. Gary Brown, CF, Giants – His speed is proving to be his most dangerous tool, as he already has 35+ stolen bases. He’s still at least another year or two away, but he has the potential to hit at the top of the order when he gets to San Francisco.
40. Tim Wheeler, OF, Rockies – The numbers are just too good to overlook. I questioned his power after last season, but this year he’s hitting for incredible power and also for good average. He has also stolen 15+ bases already. The K rate needs to come down, but if he can maintain the power and average, then it doesn’t really matter.
41. Nick Franklin, SS, Mariners – Has not been as good as he was last year, but he still has a strong bat and the speed to be a legitimate base stealing threat any time he’s on.
42. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees – Has not impressed this year, but still young and still has the raw tools to be very good.
43. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers – Ramirez put himself on the map in 2011 and is finally starting to look like the pitcher scouts thought he could be when he was selected in the first round back in 2007.
44. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners – Having a lot of success in his first full season, Walker has jumped up the ranks into the top 50 with a great K rate and by limiting base runners.
45. Jonathan Singleton, LF, Phillies – Strikeout rate is too high, but otherwise he has a strong power bat that will carry him. If he can figure out how to cut down the Ks, he could be a star.
46. Matt Davidson, 1B, Diamondbacks – Couldn’t handle defense at third, but does he have enough power to play first? Having a solid season despite a high K rate.
47. Christian Yelich, LF, Marlins – Yelich has more than twice as many stolen bases as homeruns this season, so left field seems to be the best spot for him. He is an intriguing prospect that could develop into a legitimate 20/20 threat as he fills out.
48. Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays – Has the build to hit for power and the speed to steal 30 bases. It’s already starting to come together, and Marisnick’s bat is making him look like a legitimate up and coming top prospect.
49. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers – Still young and has a long way to go, but he’s having a nice season and has the potential to make the front end of a rotation in the future.
50. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins – I’m not as impressed by Sano as some people are, but he is young and has big raw power. Time will tell.
Have an opinion, question, or an idea for a topic? Want to share an experience? Leave a comment on this post or email me at prospectforprofit@gmail.com
The big offseason signings obviously will have a great impact on the field, but what some people in our hobby may overlook is the impact the acquisitions have on card price. Obviously the first few cards of Pujols in an Angels jersey are going to sell well, fans always like getting cards of new players in their team’s jersey. But what I am hypothesizing is that the offseason superstar signings will help the card prices of the players already on the roster.
